One of the best pieces of feedback I ever received was when an honest friend said, “Sometimes your confidence exceeds your competence.” As painful as that feedback was, it made me more conscious of the level of confidence I project when I assert an opinion or decide to take on a task for which I may not be entirely prepared. For example, I often observe myself giving directions or offering an opinion on a subject with a complete air of authority, when the grounds on which I’m making that statement are shaky or not as substantiated by fact as my voice might indicate. The ugly truth is that I can state a position on any number of topics with a completely reassuring air when I am not really sure at all of the factual foundations on which I opine.
Confidence, that unwavering belief in one’s abilities, can be a powerful catalyst for success. It fuels ambition, emboldens risk-taking, and inspires others. When confidence outstrips actual competence, however, a dangerous disconnect arises. Confidence, in essence, is a feeling of self-assurance arising from an appreciation of one’s own abilities or qualities. It’s that internal voice assuring you that you can tackle challenges and achieve your goals. Competence, on the other hand, refers to the actual ability to do something successfully or efficiently. It’s the possession of the necessary skills, knowledge, and experience to perform a task well.
I often think my kids and grandkids are the opposite of me. Often, their confidence to take on challenging tasks doesn’t match the actual competencies they possess. I sometimes wish they would bolster their confidence and expand their comfort zones. I guess being able to accurately assess competence and connect with an appropriate level of confidence is an on-going challenge in life.
While confidence can spur individuals to step outside their comfort zones and strive for greater accomplishments, excessive confidence coupled with sparse competence can lead to problems. For example, overconfident individuals tend to overestimate their abilities and underestimate the complexity of tasks, leading to poor decision-making and subpar performance. This can have serious consequences in settings, where overconfidence can lead to missed deadlines, flawed projects, and strained relationships with colleagues.
The problems associated with inflated confidence have been documented and described by the Dunning-Kruger effect, a cognitive bias in which people with low ability at a task overestimate their ability. This phenomenon can create a dangerous cycle where individuals, unaware of their incompetence, continue to make mistakes and fail to learn from them. In contrast, those with high competence may underestimate their abilities, hindering their progress and potential. This phenomenon was first described by Justin Kruger and David Dunning, two social psychologists, in 1999. The Dunning-Kruger effect is often misunderstood as a claim about general overconfidence of people with low intelligence instead of specific overconfidence of people unskilled at a particular task.
When confidence overshadows competence, it can lead to a lack of self-awareness and a resistance to feedback. Overconfident individuals may be less inclined to seek help or acknowledge their shortcomings, impeding their growth and development. This can create tension in teams and organizations, as colleagues struggle to work with someone who is overly confident but underperforming.
In contrast, individuals who strike a balance between confidence and competence tend to be more successful and well-adjusted. They possess a realistic assessment of their abilities, allowing them to set appropriate goals and seek support when needed. They are open to feedback and constantly strive to improve their skills, fostering a growth mindset that propels them forward. Clearly, while confidence is undoubtedly a valuable asset, it’s essential to ensure it is grounded in genuine competence. The problems that arise when confidence exceeds competence can be detrimental to both individuals and the people they impact.
A perfect example of this problem is playing out in the US presidential elections. Former president Trump exudes extreme confidence in spite of his staggering incompetence. He continually overestimates his abilities, is dangerously unaware of his incompetence, resists feedback, and fails to learn from continuous mistakes, misstatements, or overwhelming evidence of his failed policies and criminal behaviors. I can confidently assert that the competence of the Harris-Walz ticket far exceeds that of the Trump-Vance ticket. The only way Harris can lose this race is if our culture is sicker and our systems are more broken than I can possibly imagine. I may have too little confidence that our current culture and our electoral systems will meet the challenge this election poses, but I’m hoping both rise to the occasion. I’m not going to rest easy until it’s over. Sorry, I couldn’t help myself.
While Trump provides a glaring example of this problem in the public spotlight, his example is simply symptomatic of pervasive individual and organizational issues related to this issue. In his most recent book on the continuing evolution of AI, The Singularity is Nearer, Ray Kurzweil, a leading developer of artificial intelligence for over 60 years and Principal Researcher and AI Visionary at Google, predicts that AI will reach human-level intelligence by 2029. He suggests that this technology will expand human intelligence a million fold and change human life forever. If true, Kurzweil’s predictions will totally upend our notions about competence and confidence. How long will it take for us to let go of the belief that our opinions and calculations are far superior than those generated almost instantaneously by a machine? I know personally, for example, that it took me a long time to learn to have more confidence in the GPS technology giving me directions than relying on my own competence to navigate from point A to point B. Take that one small example and expand it a million times to get a sense of how the gaps between confidence and competence might play out.
While there are always dangers inherent in overestimating our personal competence, there are also endless possibilities that may be available to us by putting more confidence in these technologies. How might AI enhance Doctors’ ability to diagnose and treat disease? How might it fuel innovation for improving all aspects of our well-being? Could it accelerate our ability to solve world hunger and reduce violence?
And yes, the other possibility exists as well. What if we put more confidence in AI solutions than we should? What impacts might that have on safety, employment, and life as we know it. Once again, at a personal and technological level, how do we get the right balance between our levels of confidence in ourselves and our own competence enhanced by new technologies to optimize our abilities to be more human, humane, and holistic?
Whew. I guess I went a little far afield with that riff, but hopefully it will heighten our awareness of these competence-confidence gaps we encounter every day.
I’m just hoping I can be a bit more clear-eyed about my own levels of confidence and competence, so I don’t send someone off on an ill-advised course. I’m also hoping that my kids and grandkids will develop the confidence they need to optimize all the competencies they possess. And, above all, I’m hoping we all develop the ability to distinguish between confidence and competence when it comes to our politicians, our pundits, our preachers, and the looming challenges we all face of balancing the risks and benefits of rapidly evolving technologies. May it be so.
Also published on Medium.
Wow! I’m confident that your competence will continue to inspire and inform those of us who love and appreciate you!