As I watch our government officials snuggling up with our autocratic adversaries and stabbing our democratic allies in the back, it makes me wonder if we are seeing a global shift in alliances. In this post, I will clarify some terms related to this conversation and provide examples of authoritarian autocrats in several regions of the world. The sobering questions I want to pose are: 1) What if the autocrats and dictators join together behind a common goal to wipe out democracy and snuff out freedom around the world? And 2) If Russia takes over Ukraine in 2026 and China takes over Taiwan in 2027, will the autocratic alliance turn a blind eye and tickle each other under the covers?
I understand if you don’t want to read any further, but remember Hitler published Mein Kampf in 1925 which clearly laid out his intentions. Then, as he shamelessly declared he would in the book, Hitler annexed Austria and Czechoslovakia in the 1930s. Still, the world did nothing to prevent territorial expansion, the alliances with Italy and Japan, or the genocide of 6 million Jews. Fast forward 100 years. Trump has Project 2025, and he has threatened to take over Panama, Greenland, Canada, and Gaza. Just sayin.
Look, I know this is alarmist, and I have no credibility in geo-political affairs. And just to be clear, I’m making no predictions. I’m only pointing out facts and raising questions – two behaviors that are largely missing in our dysfunctional information ecosystem. So with those caveats in mind, let me launch into the actual substance of this post.
The mainstream news is full of articles every day about autocracy, authoritarianism, totalitarianism, and the far right. While there are similarities among all four terms, there are also critical nuances to differentiate each of them. In essence, autocracy is primarily about centralized power in the hands of a few individuals. Autocratic leaders tend to make choices based upon their own ideas and do not listen to their team or seek input from others.
Authoritarianism is about how that power is used to control politics and limit freedoms. Authoritarian leaders often cultivate a cult of personality, portraying themselves as infallible and indispensable. Totalitarianism, a farther reach, is about the extent to which that power controls all aspects of public and personal life.
The far right, on the other hand, is a set of political beliefs driven by nationalism, populism, ideology and social hierarchy that can influence any of those governmental structures. When far right narrative morphs into actions based on racial or ethnic supremacy, it bleeds into fascism.
One of the biggest reasons the far right movement has grown over the past 10 years is the growth of immigration during that time. Liberal immigration policies in Germany, Italy, Austria, Ireland, and Sweden, for example, led to a situation in which about 20% of the population in those nations was born in a foreign country causing hardships for blue collar workforce and strains on the welfare system.
Denmark stands out, under the leadership of Mette Frederiksen, in countering the right wing resurgence with tough but fair immigration policies. I highly recommend a New York Magazine article detailing the specifics of her policies, because it provides a model for liberal democracies throughout the world, and it clarifies why Trump was successful in 2024.
Identifying autocratic, authoritarian, totalitarian or right-wing leaders requires careful consideration, as each style represents a complex concept. Freedom House, an organization that publishes annual reports assessing political rights and civil liberties around the world, provides a valuable framework for understanding authoritarian trends.
Here are some regional examples of autocratic and authoritarian leaders around the world:
- Eastern Europe:
- Russia: Vladimir Putin is widely recognized for consolidating power, suppressing opposition, and restricting press freedom. He is also a dictator who illegally invaded Ukraine.
- Belarus: Alexander Lukashenko has maintained a long-standing authoritarian regime, marked by electoral fraud and suppression of protests. He is a close ally of Putin.
- Hungary: Viktor Orbán has been criticized for eroding democratic institutions and consolidating control over the media. He is seen as a hero in right wing organizations.
- Western Europe
- France: Marine Le Pen, Leader of the National Rally, lost to Macron in 2022, but received 41% of the vote.
- Italy: Giorgia Meloni, far right Prime Minister of Italy since 2022, is on a far-right trajectory as she seeks to overhaul election law, scrap abuse-of-office rules, sue critics for defamation and turn a blind eye to open neo-Nazis in her ranks.
- Germany: Alice Weidel, leader of the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), has positioned the far right organization to command over 20 percent of the vote. AfD came in second in the most recent election – a big defeat for the Social Democrats.
- England: Liz Truss, former Prime Minister and Neil Farange, leader of the Reform UK movement are steadily growing support for their right wing party.
- Middle East:
- Turkey: Recep Tayyip Erdogan is dismantling human rights protections and democratic norms in Turkey on a scale unprecedented in the 18 years he has been in office,
- Egypt: President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has been criticized as a despot for crushing opposition lingering from a brief period of democracy,
- Saudi Arabia: Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince and Prime Minister of Saudi Arabia, is authoritarian, although some analysts have characterized his government as totalitarian.
- Iran: Ayatollah Khameni has been the Supreme Leader since 1979. His authoritarian regime governs the theocratic republic with laws and regulations based on Shia Islam.
- Israel: Benjamin Netanyahu has served off and on as the Prime Minister for 17 years. He has formed a coalition with a right wing group. The coalition is eroding checks and balances on power and is becoming more authoritarian.
- Asia:
- China: Xi Jinping exerts extensive control over all aspects of society, with limited political freedom.
- North Korea: Kim Jong Un maintains one of the world’s most repressive regimes.
- India: Narendi Modi, Prime Minister, India’s 73-year-old strongman, accustomed to a decade of solitary and authoritarian rule, was reinstated at the end of a hate-filled and Islamophobic campaign.
- Myanmar: Following the 2021 coup, the military has established a highly authoritarian rule.
- Pakistan: President Asif Ali Zardari is the 14th President of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and was sworn in office on the 10th of March 2024. Pakistan, however, has remained under military dictatorship for over 35 years of its 75-year existence
- Cambodia: Hun Sen, Prime Minister, leads a political system of complete and total authoritarianism as the rest of Southeast Asia shrugs.
- Latin America:
- Venezuela: Nicolás Maduro has been criticized for undermining democratic institutions and suppressing opposition. His disputed win over Edmundo Gonzalez deepened Venezuela’s alignment with authoritarian regimes.
- Argentina: President Javier Milei’s economic reforms don’t wash away his dictatorial tendencies. He has shifted from an anti-communist crusader to an authoritarian copycat.
- Brazil: Ex-President, Jair Bolsonaro, continues to threaten democratic rule in Brazil. He has tried to intimidate the Supreme Court and cancel election results and remains an opposition force to Lula da Silva, the current, democratically elected President.
- Nicaragua: Daniel Ortega has consolidated power and restricted civil liberties. Loyalist lawmakers recently a constitutional amendment giving absolute power to Ortega and his wife as co-Presidents.
- El Salvador. President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador is seeking to concentrate all political power in his own hands. Bukele’s allies in the National Assembly summarily removed and replaced all the judges on the constitutional chamber of El Salvador’s Supreme Court, as well as the attorney general.
- Cuba: Miguel Díaz-Canel, leader of the communist party of Cuba, maintains a single party authoritarian rule. The 2019 constitution codifies that Cuba remains a one-party system in which the Communist Party is the only legal political party.
- North America:
- USA. Trump. No explanation needed. See posts on Trump Takes a Mulligan, Irrational Irrationality, Assumptions, Standards and Systems. and Imposers and Exposers.
- Africa: Many African nations have authoritarian tendencies. It is difficult to narrow it down to a few, because of the variety of different types of authoritarianism. Here are three examples:
- Nigeria: President Muhammadu Buhari is reverting to his authoritarian style of the 1980s, growing intolerant of the press and civil society organizations that challenge his administration.
- Eritrea: Isaias Afwerki has a highly repressive regime with severe restrictions on freedom.
- Equatorial Guinea: Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo is a military leader and politician who has ruled Equatorial Guinea since seizing power from his uncle in a coup in 1979. He is among the longest-serving heads of state (excluding monarchs) in the world. His decades of authoritarian rule have been marked by human rights abuses and blatant corruption.
This partial composite of authoritarian states consists of 28 countries, including all 9 countries that are nuclear armed. It is important to note that the level of autocracy or authoritarianism varies from country to country, and some leaders may be more so than others. Additionally, the terms are often contested, and some leaders may argue that they are simply strong leaders who are necessary to maintain order and stability. The potential for disaster, however, has never been greater if some portion of these authoritarian countries form stronger alliances.
The specter of autocratic alliances, coalitions of authoritarian states driven by shared interests in suppressing dissent and maintaining power, has haunted the international order for centuries. While democracies often form alliances based on shared values, autocracies coalesce around pragmatic, often transactional goals, frequently aimed at countering perceived threats from democratic nations or consolidating regional dominance. These alliances, though often fraught with internal tensions, have demonstrated a disturbing resilience and resurgence and, particularly since World War II, have shown a worrying trend of broadening and deepening, extending their reach across continents and challenging the liberal democratic order.
Throughout history, examples of autocratic alliances abound. The Holy Alliance, formed in 1815 by Austria, Prussia, and Russia, aimed to suppress liberal and revolutionary movements in Europe. More recently, the Axis powers during World War II, comprising Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, and Imperial Japan, represented a formidable, albeit ultimately failed, autocratic alliance aimed at reshaping the global landscape through military force. These historical examples illustrate a recurring pattern: autocratic alliances often emerge in response to perceived threats, be they ideological, military, or economic, and are cemented by a shared desire to maintain the ruling elite’s grip on power. They are frequently opportunistic, shifting and reforming as the geopolitical landscape changes.
The post-World War II era witnessed the rise of a new kind of autocratic alliance, often cloaked in the rhetoric of anti-imperialism or ideological solidarity. The Soviet Union’s sphere of influence in Eastern Europe, for instance, while presented as a fraternal alliance, functioned in practice as a network of satellite states bound to Moscow through political and economic coercion. Similarly, various non-aligned movements, while ostensibly neutral, often included autocratic regimes that leveraged the platform to consolidate their power and resist Western influence. While the Cold War saw a clear ideological divide, the collapse of the Soviet Union did not usher in an era of unchallenged liberal democracy. Instead, the past few decades have witnessed the resurgence of autocratic tendencies and the formation of new, increasingly sophisticated alliances.
The past decade has seen a particularly concerning trend: the deepening and broadening of autocratic cooperation, fueled by a shared antipathy towards Western liberal values and a desire to challenge the established international order. The burgeoning relationship between China and Russia serves as a prime example. Driven by mutual concerns about Western influence and a desire to project power in their respective regions, these two powers have forged a strategic partnership encompassing military cooperation, economic ties, and diplomatic coordination. This alliance, while not formally codified, has become a significant force in global politics, challenging the United States and its allies on issues ranging from human rights to trade. Sadly, the United States is walking away from most of its alliances.
Beyond the China-Russia axis, a network of autocratic states is emerging, spanning continents and incorporating diverse regimes. Iran, with its revolutionary ideology and regional ambitions, has formed alliances with Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis and other non-state actors, creating a powerful proxy network in the Middle East. North Korea, isolated and sanctioned, relies heavily on China and, to a lesser extent, Russia for economic and political support, providing these powers with a strategic foothold in Northeast Asia. Venezuela, under its increasingly authoritarian regime, has also cultivated ties with these states, further extending the reach of this emerging autocratic bloc into Latin America. These connections are not always based on deep ideological affinity but rather on transactional benefits, mutual survival instincts, and a shared desire to resist Western pressure.
The implications of this growing network of autocratic alliances are profound. These alliances pose a direct challenge to the rules-based international order, undermining democratic institutions and norms. They facilitate the spread of authoritarian practices, emboldening repressive regimes and silencing dissent. Furthermore, they create a more volatile and unpredictable global environment, increasing the risk of conflict and instability.
The rise of autocratic alliances is not a monolithic phenomenon. These partnerships are often riddled with internal contradictions and competing interests. However, their growing sophistication and reach pose a significant threat to the future of democracy and the international order. Understanding the dynamics of these alliances, their motivations, and their vulnerabilities is crucial for developing effective strategies to counter their influence and safeguard the principles of freedom and democracy. The challenge is not simply to confront individual autocratic regimes, but to address the broader ecosystem that allows them to thrive, including the spread of disinformation, the erosion of democratic institutions, and the growing appeal of authoritarian solutions in an increasingly complex world.
Yes, it’s a frightening and depressing time for many of us, and I don’t know where to go from here . . . . with all THAT. We are clearly spiraling down into an authoritarian autocracy driven by right wing ideology. I have no idea what the world will look like in 100, 50, or 20 years. I can only hope we don’t degenerate any further into a totalitarian or fascist state allied with dictators. The whole global context simply raises questions about life and death that seem unanswerable.
I do have some ideas however, of how to live and love in THIS. So let me close with two books I just read that may provide some ways to look at how we live our life and face our death and deal with the shifting currents of the world. The first, Memorial Days, by Geraldine Brooks is a memoire describing how she dealt with the sudden and unexpected death of her husband from a heart attack when he was 60. She goes to a remote island in Australia to grieve, reflect, recollect and redirect after the passing of her husband of 35 years. In spite of all her grief, she still finds moments to rest and restore. Highly recommended.
The second book, Aflame, by Pico Iyer, shares his experiences in silent retreats over a 30 year period at a Benedictine Hermitage monastery high above Big Sur reflecting on his life and what it means. Here’s a paragraph that stood out to me:
“Buddhists are experts when it comes to defusing the suffering in the mind; Christians are often deeply attentive to the suffering in the world. Neither, however, can pretend that pain can never be entirely healed.”
In short, as Brooks and Iyer attest, all we can do is attend to our mental, physical, emotional and spiritual health with no expectation for achieving perfection. Unattached, but not untethered. Both books put into perspective all that is happening, now, in the past, and whatever the future may bring. They encourage us to sit in silence and just be . . . . at least for a moment.
I’m hoping we can find more moments of peace and serenity in our lives, as terrifying and discouraging as they may be. AND, I’m hoping the trends in the world will shift in a direction that gives all of us more time to pursue our possibilities in peace – spiced with joy, grounded in wisdom, filled with love and powered by purpose. May it be so.
Ok Ricky-color me thoroughly scared shitless and depressed….