Sometimes I feel like a pundit without pedigree or platform. I guess that makes me a lonely voice in the wilderness. I often wonder about how many people actually read this blog, but I’m less concerned about broadening my reach than deepening my connection with the people I care about. To make myself vulnerable by openly communicating my thoughts and feelings. To invite meaningful conversation. Writing not only helps me clarify my own thoughts, but it also gives me a chance to share my thinking and processing with those who might not have the luxury or lifestyle to read as much as I do. If I have any “superpower,” it is my ability to summarize complex ideas into digestible essays. Essentially, my career was built on that skill. Yes, I know, many of my posts are not exactly Pablum.
There are so many complex issues in the world today that it’s tempting to over-simplify or reduce all the noise to a single “truth.” In the United States, we are in the midst of disturbing and disorienting divisions that are polarizing the country and threatening to destroy what was once a beacon of hope for people around the world. While we are still 9 months away from the 2024 elections, pundits abound with their prognostications. In this post, I’m not going to make any predictions, but I will share what I believe to be true and summarize the main issues that could impact this election one way or another. I hope my protestations and provocations inspire you to share your ideas.
What I know is that 270 electoral votes are needed to win the presidency. What all the polling data clearly indicates is that:
- Democrats appear locked in to win 226 Electoral Votes (for example, there is no question that states like New York, Massachusetts, and California will stay blue.)
- Republicans appear locked in to win 219 Electoral Votes (for example, there is no question that states like Mississippi, Alabama, and Arkansas will stay red.)
- 93 Electoral votes are up for grabs in 7 states:
- Arizona: 11
- Pennsylvania: 19
- Michigan: 15
- Georgia: 16
- North Carolina 16
- Wisconsin: 10
- Nevada: 6
Other States Possibly in Play: (Might be 10% in 10 states)
Colorado: 10 (Democrats won by 10 in 2020)
Virginia: 13 (Democrats won by 10 in 2020)
Texas: 40 (Republicans won by 5 in 2020)
It also appears that a small percentage of voters in each of those 7–10 states are still undecided. There is no way to know what may happen between now and November 5 to influence the 7–10% of voters in those states to vote either Republican or Democratic. But, to me, this election is all about 7% of the voters in 7 states. It’s a lousy system, but it’s our reality.
Each candidate has critical vulnerabilities. These are the top five for Biden:
Immigration: Biden is very vulnerable on the border crisis. Over 3.2 million migrants entered our country in 2023, and the systems for addressing the problem are extremely broken. This is a key campaign issue for Trump, even though he hasn’t helped his case by killing a strong, bipartisan bill that would have strengthened the border and immigration systems.
Gaza: The narrative has shifted on the Israel-Hamas War since the October 7 Hamas massacre of innocent Israeli citizens. With over 27,000 Gazan deaths (12,000 of whom were children), 1.9 million displaced Palestinians in a population of 2.3 million, starving people, no end in sight to the fighting, growing support for Hamas among Palestinians, and over 125 hostages (25% of whom may be dead), many historically supportive Biden voters (particularly Blacks and young people) no longer support him. Gaza could strip a lot of votes from Biden because he is not perceived by many voting blocs as pushing back hard enough on Israel for a more proportionate, humane, and discriminative reaction to the horrific, barbaric actions of Hamas.
Economy: While the economy is very strong now (<4% unemployment, <3% inflation, strong wage growth, and an historically high stock market), many people are still experiencing financial challenges due to higher food and housing prices. What should be a huge strength may still hurt him.
Ukraine: The situation in Ukraine is not improving, and, unless significant US aid is granted quickly, Russia could plausibly regain more territory and disable Ukraine’s power grid and economy. Even though Biden has been a strong supporter of Ukraine aid, has built an international coalition to provide additional aid, and has strengthened NATO, he will still be blamed if this war tilts dramatically in Putin’s favor by November.
Personal Health: The quote from the special council investigating Biden’s mishandling of confidential documents, “Biden is a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory,” will plague him throughout this campaign. You can be sure it will be a main feature in Trump’s media blitz. Even though Biden is sharper and more capable than he often appears, his presentations do not inspire confidence. While he is only 4 years older than Trump and is clearly more knowledgeable and capable mentally and emotionally, he often appears frail and makes mistakes. I worry that young voters may prefer to pass on this election rather than make the effort to cast their vote for Biden.
The top five vulnerabilities for Trump are:
Court convictions on any one of 91 charges: Trump’s strategy is not necessarily to win any of the court cases in which he is the defendant. He only wants to delay any verdicts past November. It appears the only case that could get started early enough to reach a verdict before the election is the Jack Smith case in DC on his role in the January 6 insurrection. My bet is that the Supreme Court will reach a 9-0 decision on the Colorado case in favor of Trump, and it will reach a 9-0 decision against Trump on the appeal of the DC immunity case, which will enable Jack Smith to proceed. I have no idea how much, if any, the civil cases against Trump in New York (fraudulent representation of his businesses and defamation of E. Jean Carroll) will hurt him. The Georgia case on election interference is in jeopardy, and the obstruction case on handling classified information is not likely to go to trial before November. There is some evidence to suggest, however, that any conviction will damage his chances to win.
Continual decline in cognitive functioning: While Biden may have some presentation issues, Trump comes across as completely unhinged. He rarely puts together a coherent sentence, and there is no substance behind many of his bold statements and lies. Given social media algorithms, though, it is unlikely that his base will be influenced by the actual facts. They are receiving a steady dose of information that reinforces their point of view. Still, his incoherence will not serve him well in any presidential debate and may expose major cognitive weaknesses and psychological pathology.
Abortion: Since Trump owns the Republican Party and its platform, he will not be able to disassociate himself from the abortion issue. After all, he did appoint three conservative judges to the Supreme Court. Over 56% of all voters and 88% of Democrats favor choice and a woman’s right to make health decisions about her own body and her own life. This issue alone could mobilize many voters to go to the polls and support a democratic candidate.
Republican extremism and overreach: Impeachments; refusal to fund border security, Israel Ukraine, Taiwan, Gaza humanitarian aid; and egregious dysfunction among House Republicans could cause independent and moderate voters, who may lean toward Republicans, to shift their support to Biden. Over 1/3 of voters see themselves as moderate, and almost 1/2 identify as independent. These numbers don’t bode well for a party that is increasingly perceived as too extreme and unable to produce any meaningful legislation.
Truth: For anyone who is remotely interested in scratching the surface or investigating wild claims, Trump is very vulnerable. Truth doesn’t matter to him. He spews lies like story tellers spin tales. Hopefully, truth will matter enough to the 7% of people in 7 states to defeat him at the ballot box.
So, who knows? Both candidates have significant vulnerabilities. Much could change in the next nine months that could completely disrupt where we are now. No one knows what North Korea, Iran, China, or Russia may do that would impact this election. We don’t know how two old men will weather the storms of a strenuous campaign over the next several months. We don’t know who Trump will pick as a running mate or how much impact that choice may have. It’s unclear right now how much the polls reflect angry vetting nor how much of a role those feelings might have on how someone votes in November—will the decision be an intellectual one based on facts or an emotional one based on feelings? We don’t know. There is a possibility that Robert Kennedy, Jr., Jill Stein, Cornell West and/or Joe Manchin may run as third-party candidates. We don’t know how much each might drain votes from whom, although it appears that Trump would benefit more from multiple candidates—the Ralph Nader effect. We don’t know how the Supreme Court might rule on immunity. And what if Joe and Jill Biden come to their senses and withdraw from the race – freeing someone like Grethen Whitmer to run instead? Highly unlikely, but hey. So many variables. So much uncertainty. So much danger.
What we do know is that the most popular candidate might not win, given the reality of the electoral college. Essentially, this campaign will be decided by 7% of the people in 7 states. I’m hoping that 7 percent relies more on intellectual substance than emotional rhetoric and saves us from another four years of Trump. I mostly hope that this post is helpful to you and that it prompts a meaningful conversation. May it be so.
Also published on Medium.
Really well done Ricky! Thank you!
Great summation Rick. I like the breakdown for each person. Very factual.